![]() ![]() We then assessed whether participants used this information to update their predictions by subsequently asking them in a second session to provide estimates of their likelihood of encountering all 80 events. After each trial, participants were presented with the average probability of that event occurring to an individual living in the same socio-cultural environment as the participants ( Fig. We obtained fMRI (functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging) data while participants estimated their likelihood of experiencing 80 different types of adverse life events (e.g. While optimism is defined both as overestimation of positive future events and underestimation of future negative events 1, we focused here on the latter as this is strongly related to a concern that people do not take necessary action to protect themselves against hazards 9. Our task enabled us to quantify how much participants adjusted their beliefs in response to new information. We combined a novel learning paradigm with functional brain imaging. Here, we tested whether a failure to alter optimistic predictions when presented with disconfirming data was mediated by differential error processing in response to information that was better, or worse, than expected. There is now a rich literature indicating that learning from information that disconfirms one’s expectations is mediated by regions involved in error processing and conflict detection, including anterior cingulate cortex, adjacent medio-frontal regions and lateral prefrontal regions 15- 20. Importantly, such biases are not explained by theories assuming equal learning across outcome valence 6, 7. While the existence of unrealistic optimism has been extensively documented 1- 5, for review 13& 14, the biological and computational principles that help to maintain optimistically biased predictions in the face of reality are unknown 5. On the upside, optimistic expectations can lower stress and anxiety, thereby promoting health and well-being 10- 12. The wider societal importance of these errors derives from the fact that they reduce precautionary actions, such as practicing safe sex or saving for retirement 8, 9. For instance, financial analysts expect improbably high profits 3 and family-law attorneys underestimate the negative consequences of divorce 2. Even experts show worrying optimistic biases. For example, highlighting previously unknown risk factors for diseases is surprisingly ineffective at altering peoples’ optimistic perception of their medical vulnerability 8, 9. However, this normative account is challenged by findings showing that providing people with evidence that disconfirms their positive outlook often fails to engender realistic expectations. According to influential learning theories agents should adjust their expectations when faced with disconfirming information 6, 7. A problem that has puzzled scientists for decades is why human optimism is so pervasive, when reality continuously confronts us with information that challenges these biased beliefs 5. People’s estimations of the future are often unrealistically optimistic 1- 5. These findings show that optimism is tied to a selective update failure, and diminished neural coding, of undesirable information regarding the future. However, highly optimistic individuals exhibited reduced tracking of estimation errors that called for negative update within right inferior prefrontal gyrus. Distinct regions of the prefrontal cortex tracked estimation errors when those called for positive update, both in highly optimistic and low optimistic individuals. This selectivity was mediated by a relative failure to code for errors that should reduce optimism. Specifically, we show a striking asymmetry, whereby people updated their beliefs more in response to information that was better than expected compared to information that was worse. How people maintain unrealistic optimism, despite frequently encountering information that challenges those biased beliefs, is unknown. Unrealistic optimism is a pervasive human trait influencing domains ranging from personal relationships to politics and finance. ![]()
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